A Pivotal Problem for Central Banks We have commented in previous notes about the understated importance of the trend in bond yields in the post-2008 environment for asset prices and monetary policy alike. Lower highs and lower lows in official interest rates were effective…
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Rationality “Being rational is a moral imperative. You should never be stupider than you need to be.” Charlie Munger It is relatively easy to describe…
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The Line of Best Fit Like any analysis, regression analysis has strengths and weaknesses in its predictive power. While being easy to understand and…
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Playing Investment Offense in a Defensive World For the past 25 years, the investment world has lived life under a succession of Fed Chairman “puts…
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The Problem with Bonds The bond markets of most western democracies have encountered significant inflationary headwinds in 2022 brought on by nascent…
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The Problem with Bonds The bond markets of most western democracies have encountered significant inflationary headwinds in 2022 brought on by nascent…
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Linkages and Sequences Linkage: “A factor or relationship that ties one thing to another” Sequence: “The following of one thing after another…
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Grahams Benjamins Discontinuity “We know from chaos theory that even if you had a perfect model of the world, you’d need infinite precision in order to…
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